An inexact science

The scandal/kerfuffle/mess that is Kurt Tippett’s recently-expired contract with the Crows will be the big story out of this first free agency period trading. The ramifications for the competition generally, and for Tippett and the Crows specifically, look to be far-reaching. And yet, AussieRulesBlog thinks there’s another story hidden in the last day of trading.

 

Five years ago, the Demons used pick 4 in the AFL National Draft to take a skinny kid named Cale Morton. This week, those same Demons, admittedly with a different coaching group in place, have seen Morton off to West Coast in exchange for pick 88.

 

This is either a spectacular devaluation or one of the most graphic illustrations seen of how fraught the AFL Draft is. Perhaps it’s both?

 

Morton isn’t the first draftee not to live up to the billing, but fans rightly expect something of quality from a top ten pick, let alone a top four. It’s not Morton’s fault that his name was read out at pick four either!

 

Just for some perspective, the top ten picks for that year — 2007 — were:

1. Matthew Kreuzer

2. Trent Cotchin

3. Chris Masten

4. Cale Morton

5. Jarrad Grant

6. David Myers

7. Rhys Palmer

8. Lachlan Henderson

9. Ben McEvoy

10. Patrick Dangerfield

 

And for some further perspective, from the same Draft —

12. Cyril Rioli

13. Brad Ebert

17. Harry Taylor

19. Callan Ward

22. Scott Selwood

29. Brendan Whitecross

35. Sam Reid

37. Scott Thompson

43. Easton Wood

46. Dennis Armfield

59. Craig Bird (NSW Scholarship)

75. Taylor Walker (NSW Scholarship)

 

With the exception of (in our assessment of current value) Dangerfield, Cotchin, McEvoy and Kreuzer, the other six in the top ten are all easily supplanted by those lower picks.

 

Of course, clubs draft for position as much as for quality, so these assessments are necessarily quite subjective.

 

Neverthless, it’s enough to make us glad we’re not working in recruiting.