Thursday, February 18, 2016

A not-so-steep price tag

At first glance, Mick Malthouse’s reported $1 million price tag to manage the twelve suspended Bombers (and three at other Melbourne clubs?) for the 2016 season is a steep one. If Paul Little steps in and picks up the tab, it's a no-brainer. But even if the players funded it themselves, there's more upside than down.

While there’s plenty of precedent for players missing a year of football and returning successfully, they’re generally within the bosom of their club, with all of the benefits, and psychological and social advantages, of team elan.

Those banned from their teams, and from competitive sport, for a year are far fewer — Ahmed Saad, Lachie Keefe, Josh Thomas and Ryan Crowley.

Saad had a one-year rookie contract with the Saints following his suspension, but was then delisted and not drafted by another AFL club. Keefe and Thomas have been listed as rookies for 2016 by the Barcodes following their year suspended. Crowley was set to resume his football in the WAFL after failing to be drafted following his year away from the game, but was the first player signed by Essendon when topping up their list after the CAS decision. (Being the first player signed was, in all likelihood, more a matter of availability than desirability.)

Saad’s career at AFL level appears to be finished. Keefe and Thomas will be playing VFL in 2016 and hoping for elevation to the senior list and a contract for 2017 and beyond — but nothing is certain. Only Crowley, courtesy of the unusual circumstances at Essendon, will have an immediate chance to put his case on-field for continuing his career.

It's hard to imagine that Dyson Heppell, for instance, won’t be welcomed back into the Bombers’ fold with open arms in 2017. The question will be how far below the Dyson Heppell of 2015 he’ll be in late 2016 when pre-season commences. That same question will face all seventeen current players serving WADA code violation suspensions.

That is, of course, where Malthouse comes into the picture. As a recently-departed AFL coach, he’s reasonably current with AFL fitness and skill levels. More importantly, he’s deeply experienced in managing a group of athletes to achieve and maintain a peak athletic, and mental, performance. Previously Malthouse-coached players in Eddie Betts and Jarrad Waite made significant contributions to other clubs in 2015, however two others, Troy Menzel and Chris Yarran, have both reportedly been considered well below the standard for AFL fitness at their new clubs in 2016.

In our view, the key consideration is providing a reasonable analogue for an AFL football club environment for the banned players until they can resume with Essendon in November. That includes scheduling their training sessions and devising drills to maintain their competitive skills, as far as practicable, arranging ancillary staff like dietitians, physios, masseuses and so on. None of the players are coaches-in-waiting, so they simply don't have the skills to organise their own training.

Thinking in those terms, the $1 million price tag is really quite reasonable.

Finally, Crowley will provide the Bombers brains trust with a template for managing the reintegration of their twelve suspended players for the 2017 pre-season. That might yet prove to be the most important piece in this whole puzzle.


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A not-so-steep price tag

At first glance, Mick Malthouse’s reported $1 million price tag to manage the twelve suspended Bombers (and three at other Melbourne clubs?) for the 2016 season is a steep one. If Paul Little steps in and picks up the tab, it's a no-brainer. But even if the players funded it themselves, there's more upside than down.


While there’s plenty of precedent for players missing a year of football and returning successfully, they’re generally within the bosom of their club, with all of the benefits, and psychological and social advantages, of team elan.

Those banned from their teams, and from competitive sport, for a year are far fewer — Ahmed Saad, Lachie Keefe, Josh Thomas and Ryan Crowley.

Saad had a one-year rookie contract with the Saints following his suspension, but was then delisted and not drafted by another AFL club. Keefe and Thomas have been listed as rookies for 2016 by the Barcodes following their year suspended. Crowley was set to resume his football in the WAFL after failing to be drafted following his year away from the game, but was the first player signed by Essendon when topping up their list after the CAS decision. (Being the first player signed was, in all likelihood, more a matter of availability than desirability.)

Saad’s career at AFL level appears to be finished. Keefe and Thomas will be playing VFL in 2016 and hoping for elevation to the senior list and a contract for 2017 and beyond — but nothing is certain. Only Crowley, courtesy of the unusual circumstances at Essendon, will have an immediate chance to put his case on-field for continuing his career.

It's hard to imagine that Dyson Heppell, for instance, won’t be welcomed back into the Bombers’ fold with open arms in 2017. The question will be how far below the Dyson Heppell of 2015 he’ll be in late 2016 when pre-season commences. That same question will face all seventeen current players serving WADA code violation suspensions.

That is, of course, where Malthouse comes into the picture. As a recently-departed AFL coach, he’s reasonably current with AFL fitness and skill levels. More importantly, he’s deeply experienced in managing a group of athletes to achieve and maintain a peak athletic, and mental, performance. Previously Malthouse-coached players in Eddie Betts and Jarrad Waite made significant contributions to other clubs in 2015, however two others, Troy Menzel and Chris Yarran, have both reportedly been considered well below the standard for AFL fitness at their new clubs in 2016.

In our view, the key consideration is providing a reasonable analogue for an AFL football club environment for the banned players until they can resume with Essendon in November. That includes scheduling their training sessions and devising drills to maintain their competitive skills, as far as practicable, arranging ancillary staff like dietitians, physios, masseuses and so on. None of the players are coaches-in-waiting, so they simply don't have the skills to organise their own training.

Thinking in those terms, the $1 million price tag is really quite reasonable.

Finally, Crowley will provide the Bombers brains trust with a template for managing the reintegration of their twelve suspended players for the 2017 pre-season. That might yet prove to be the most important piece in this whole puzzle.


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